PVTIME – According to the Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025-2028, published by the Global Solar Council (GSC), annual new solar power capacity installed in Africa in 2024 was 2.403GW, down nearly 22% from 3.076GW in 2023. The report was published in collaboration with the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and supported by GET.Invest.
South Africa remained the largest solar installation market in Africa in 2024, accounting for 46% of new installations across the continent. However, its share fell significantly from 79% in 2023. In contrast, Egypt experienced significant growth in 2024, with its market share rising to 29% from 5% in 2023. The market is expected to recover significantly in 2025 and maintain a compound annual growth rate of 30% over the next four years.
The GSC points out that the delay in the development of PV projects in North Africa is the main reason for the decline in PV installations in Africa in 2024. However, the year-on-year increase in new installed capacity is expected to rebound to 42% in 2025, as the projects postponed in 2024 will be gradually connected to the grid in 2025, especially the tender projects in Algeria.
In addition, newly added PV capacity in Mozambique, Ghana and Morocco will also be important drivers of installation growth in 2025. In 2025, 18 African countries are expected to add more than 100MW of installed solar capacity, compared to only 2 countries reaching this threshold in 2024.
The GSC has produced scenario-based projections of market trends from 2025 to 2028. Under the neutral scenario, PV installations in Africa will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2025 to 2028, with a total of 23GW of new installations over four years. The pessimistic and optimistic scenarios forecast 9.2GW and 47GW of new installations respectively.
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